Prediksi GBP/USD: Musim Menguntungkan di Bulan April, Terutama Mulai Tanggal 8

GBP/USD: The Most Bullish Phase of the Most Bullish Month

Last week, GBP/USD emerged as the strongest performer in April, prompting a comprehensive analysis to identify its most favorable period during this bullish month.

Seasonality by Month

Historical data reveals that GBP/USD boasts a remarkable positive return of 0.85% in April over the past 43 years. Moreover, its median return of 1.07% suggests that occasional negative outliers have suppressed the average. Additionally, April witnesses a high win rate of 66.7%, making it GBP/USD's most profitable month.

Seasonality by Day

A deep dive into GBP/USD's daily performance in April paints an interesting picture. The currency pair tends to exhibit impressive gains between April 8th and 19th, with most days recording positive win rates. Coincidentally, this bullish phase coincides with the start of the financial year on April 6th, potentially indicating some form of repatriation trade by companies.

Notable Dates

While April 8th marks the beginning of GBP/USD's bullish run, the most bearish day of the month falls on April 20th. However, this year, April 20th lands on a Saturday, suggesting that traders may want to watch for possible sell-offs on Friday, April 19th. On the other hand, April 28th emerges as the most bullish day of the month, with an impressive average return of 0.22% and a win rate of 84.6%. This year, April 28th conveniently falls on a Friday.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD

GBP/USD has witnessed a decline of 2.7% since its false breakout in December. However, it has recently found support around the February closing low and formed a bullish inside day, hinting at a potential reversal. Traders should closely monitor data releases such as the ISM services report and nonfarm payroll data, as they could weaken the US dollar and support pairs like GBP/USD.