Prospek EUR/USD: Pasangan Mata Uang Minggu Ini - 8 April 2024

EUR/USD Outlook: Data-Driven Week Ahead

The EUR/USD currency pair remains within a narrow range, hovering around the 1.08 mark. Positive German data and a cautious US dollar have supported the euro. This week's key events include the US CPI report and the ECB policy decision, which have the potential to drive significant price action.

Upcoming Events to Watch

Market participants are closely watching the upcoming US CPI data, scheduled for Wednesday. A higher-than-expected CPI could bolster the US dollar while increasing the likelihood of a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Attention will also be drawn to the ECB policy decision on Thursday, with expectations that the bank will prepare markets for a potential rate reduction in June.

German Data Improvement and Investor Sentiment

Recent weeks have witnessed an improvement in German data, with industrial production and economic sentiment showing signs of growth. This has provided support to the euro and contributed to its ability to maintain ground against the US dollar. The upbeat data provides evidence of resilience within the German economy, boosting the euro's attractiveness among investors.

US CPI and ECB Policy Decision in Focus

The strong US jobs report released last week has raised expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve, casting doubt on the possibility of a rate cut in June. The upcoming CPI data will further shape market sentiment regarding the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to signal a potential rate cut in June during this week's meeting. However, a decisive move for the EUR/USD pair will hinge on a significant shift in market expectations and a breakout beyond its current range.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Range-bound

Technically, the EUR/USD remains trapped within a narrow range, oscillating around its 200-day moving average. A breakout above the 200-day MA or a breakdown below the recent trend line would provide a clearer indication of future price direction. In the meantime, traders may consider range-bound strategies, capitalizing on the limited price fluctuations within the current consolidation.